Deaniacs and Tea Partiers

One of the obvious elements that I think has been neglected in the press (do we still have a press?) is the connection between the 2003-2004 campaign for Howard Dean on the Left and the Tea Party Movement on the Right.  Obviously,  the two groups are not ideologically similar, but they arose out of dissatisfaction with their own party and its purported lack of ideological commitment.  Both movements were catalyzed by major events and by long term political rumblings under the surface of American politics.  The Dean Campaign arose out of anger with the Iraq War and the Tea Party ignited with the impending passage of "Obamacare."  Similar language was used in both campaigns ("We need to take our country back" and the focus on the "People" versus those in charge).  Both campaigns were diffuse and decentralized.  One difference is that Howard Dean was the clear leader of his movement while the Tea Party has only some would-be leaders like Sarah Palin.  In both cases the two dominant parties eyed both movements warily and some even disparaged them.  Former Democrat Zell Miller warned the party not to let this  "Vermont pond" have influence on this party.  In the same vein, some Republicans now quietly fear the Tea Party.  The Dean Campaign ultimately morphed into the Obama Campaign, a less strident movement that attracted many of the same followers and energy of the Dean Campaign with a more likable leader and under different conditions.  The Obama coalition was young, and full of energy, as was the Dean Campaign.

The Dean Campaign was a reaction to years of Republican dominance and Democratic capitulation, Deaniacs viewed Clinton as too moderate.  The post-9/11 environment led to attacks on certain liberties in the name of security, the Patriot Act was one, as was a political environment that stifled dissent.  The Iraq War (and the Democrats weak or non-existent opposition) was seen as the last straw that led to direct action (full disclosure: I was part of the Dean Campaign in 2003/2004).

The Tea Party is a similar reaction on the Right, not necessarily to years of Democratic dominance (A truly Liberal agenda has only really been advanced for a few years, and a tepid one at that).  The Tea Party reaction is one of a group that is used to seeing its agenda advanced (or at least parts of it) and now is not seeing its power reflected in public policy.  The Right has really owned the discourse in American politics since Reagan (hostility to taxes, big government, welfare spending, aggressive defense is the mainstream and remains so).  The Dean Campaign was a reaction to years of Democrats not responding aggressively to the Right, the Tea Party is a reaction against the Left actually doing what the Right has been able to do for years, use its power to make public policy.

Republicans will probably make big gains in the midterm elections, and the Tea Party influence will be felt.  It is likely that the Republicans will try to do to the Tea Party what the Obama Campaign did for the Deanics, co-opt them with a policy influenced by their ideas but grounded in more practical and popularly palatable policy prescriptions.  However, the extreme ideas of Tea Partiers will slip through in many areas, and the country is going to see a big rightward swing.  This will probably lead to another movement on the Left, the pendulum keeps swinging ever more wildly and rapidly in American politics.  I think this is fueled in good measure by the weak economy, when growth is strong the underlying tensions in society are suppressed, but when the pie shrinks people look to radical solutions and passions flare.