It hard to escape the reality of this year's mid-term elections. This hits particularly close to home for people in my age cohort and younger whether people want to acknowledge it or not. People aged 40 (maybe even 55) and younger are going to be the biggest losers this year. Why? Well, whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress, we will be paying the bill for years of poor fiscal management. We will be paying either through increased taxes or reduced government services, most likely a combination of the two. Politicians can get away with this because most young people simply do not think that far down the road. Let's see what Democrats and Republicans have to offer those who are not retired or near retirement age:
Republicans: Keep the Bush tax cuts in their entirety and cut government spending.
The GOP has been basically getting a free ride all year on this one, they have been able to maintain the politically popular position that they will cut taxes and government spending without explaining the deeply unpopular cuts that they will have to make to reduce the deficit. Paul Ryan has basically proposed outright generational theft. This is Ryan's plan according to http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/is-paul-ryan-serious-about-the-deficit/ :
* Reduce Social Security benefits for people now younger than 55.
* “Eliminate the income and payroll tax exclusions for employment-based health insurance.”
* Replace the current Medicare system for people now under 55 with a voucher system providing significantly less generous benefits than are currently planned.
How is this not a MASSIVE tax increase AND benefit cut on those under 55? Basically, Ryan is asking us to subsidize the health care and pensions of our parents and grandparents. Perhaps it did not occur to Ryan that many of our generation will probably be taking student debt into retirement (if we retire at all) and cannot afford to pay for our parents and grandparent's retirements and medical bills as well. Students graduating from college today will already lag their predecessors, since the lower wages that new grads earn when they enter the job market in a recession follows them into the recovery.
On top of stacking multiple burdens on our generation, the health care bill that passed this year will be repealed. This bill has many benefits for young people, the most underinsured portion of the population. Students that enter this bad job market can get their parent's insurance into their late twenties. Since new grads are often the first fired, this also provides insurance during periods of unemployment. In addition, if any of us ever feel confident enough to procreate under this type of economic insecurity, our children may not be able to get coverage due to pre-existing conditions. The repeal of health reform is going to effect young people the most. Republicans say they plan to replace the bill and keep the popular benefits, but this is not possible to do and keep premiums affordable without the risk-sharing of an individual mandate (which Republicans vehemently oppose). The Republicans also add that they want to protect the Medicare cuts in the bill, protecting the benefits to the current generation of retirees while scheming to torpedo the whole thing for people under 55! How can they get away with this? They can because retirees vote in large numbers and have more economic clout than young people. How many people in their 20's stay up late talking about Medicare solvency, poli sci majors, THAT'S IT!
So, what about the Dems:
Democrats want to keep up spending on education and infrastructure, maintain the health care bill, and still manage to reduce the deficit without killing the economy. This is a tall order. They want to ax the tax cuts on the top 20% of income earners. These tax increases will not be enough to really reduce the deficit. I suggest the country needs to own up to the fact that we will ALL have to pay more taxes now or pay even more taxes later. I would propose that the Bush tax cuts remain in place until GDP growth hits at least 3% and unemployment falls to 6%. At that point, taxes should go back to Clinton-era levels, automatically. Democrats are also reluctant to talk about trimming the defense budget, which needs to happen. Ending the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will go a long way toward deficit reduction, as will asking our allies to shoulder a greater burden of their own security. Let's face it, unipolarity was nice, but it doesn't last. The Dems do not really have much of a plan either, but I have more confidence in their regard for young voters since Obama was elected by them. The future will include painful cuts and tax increases, I think that old and young will have to share the burden. I also predict that the average age of the Republican voter this year will be pretty high.
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